Heating Pattern Cluster Analysis of Winter AMI Data
Heating electrification is a key strategy for reducing Vermont’s greenhouse gas emissions from the thermal sector. Specific and targeted approaches are needed to help transition customers from unregulated and price-volatile fossil fuels to more efficient and regulated electricity for heating and cooling. However, identifying customers poised to make such a switch can be challenging. In this research, Efficiency Vermont leveraged Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data to identify customers' energy use patterns, including those who were likely using non-electric heating on days with low outdoor temperatures. This was accomplished by using open-source regression models to disaggregate heating and cooling loads for individual customers, allowing Efficiency Vermont to create a detailed landscape of electric heating and cooling usage for a given population and distinguish sub-populations based on their heating source. Analyzing these patterns revealed customers who are likely ideal candidates for electrification programs. These findings highlight opportunities to optimize and support energy efficiency programs and help design more intentional electrification programs, particularly for homes where electrification could make the most impact.